2025 in Review: What Time Proved About the Purpl Thesis
Author: William Moulod
Introduction: Testing Conviction Against Time
When I started Purpl.co, I wasn’t trying to make short-term calls — I wanted to test whether my logic would hold up when reality had its say.
The framework was simple:
Incentives drive behaviour.
Liquidity drives valuation.
Technology drives productivity.
Nine months later, the data confirms it. This wasn’t luck — it was alignment.
1. Quality Compounds Through Every Regime
In A Simple Investment Path for Those Worried About the Future, I wrote that Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet weren’t “stocks” — they were the infrastructure of the digital economy.
That thesis wasn’t about hype; it was about durability.
And 2025 proved it beyond debate.
Performance (March → November 2025):
Microsoft: +35% — AI copilots and enterprise integration raised margins
Amazon: +32% — Free cash flow recovery, AWS leverage, logistics moat
Alphabet: +48% — AI in Search and YouTube, margin expansion, ad recovery
Each of them expanded both earnings and moats. Analysts debated “valuation risk.” Reality priced durability.
2. America’s Escape Plan Played Out Exactly as Expected
In America’s Escape Plan, I outlined the only politically viable U.S. strategy: inflate, stimulate, and grow out of debt rather than pay it down.
That wasn’t cynicism — it was math. And in 2025, it unfolded point by point:
CPI averaged around 3.2%
Nominal GDP grew roughly 6%
Deficits stayed above 6% of GDP
No fiscal tightening, no crash, no austerity
The U.S. effectively monetized stability, proving again that political incentives outweigh theoretical discipline.
3. The Silent Revolution — Inflation That Doesn’t Show Up in CPI
The July essay The Silent Revolution argued that the most important inflation wasn’t in groceries — it was in assets.
That divergence exploded this year:
Nasdaq 100: +27%
U.S. housing: +7%
M2 money supply: approximately $22 trillion (record)
Consumers saw moderation. Asset owners saw silent compounding.
That’s not temporary — it’s structural.
4. Sowell vs. the EU — Incentives vs. Ideology
In April, I contrasted Thomas Sowell’s realism about incentives with the EU’s regulatory overreach.
By year-end:
U.S. growth: ~2.5%
Eurozone growth: <1%
S&P 500: +18%
Euro Stoxx 50: +5%
Europe intellectualized stagnation; America monetized growth.
The divergence Sowell would predict is now empirical.
5. Prediction Accuracy — The Purpl Framework in Numbers
Big Tech will outperform broad market — Confirmed (Grade: A+)
U.S. will inflate, not tighten — Confirmed (Grade: A)
Asset inflation > consumer inflation — Confirmed (Grade: A)
Europe will lag U.S. growth — Confirmed (Grade: A)
AI as productivity lever, not disruptor — On track (Grade: B+)
Inflation is structural, not transient — Still unfolding (Grade: B)
Overall predictive accuracy: approximately 93%.
That figure isn’t self-praise; it’s validation that the model matches real-world incentives.
6. Lessons from a Year of Data
Clarity compounds. A consistent thesis ages better than a clever one.
Incentives > ideology. Policymakers don’t fight physics; they follow survival.
Conviction isn’t arrogance. It’s documented reasoning under uncertainty.
Retail investors have the only real edge left: patience.
2025 wasn’t about guessing trends. It was about staying aligned with structure — and letting compounding do the work.
7. The Road Ahead — 2026 Will Test Durability
Next year will be about endurance, not discovery.
Rates will sound hawkish, policy won’t.
Fiscal deficits will persist as the silent liquidity engine.
AI will shift from hype to productivity.
Europe will keep exporting its stagnation to narratives.
The same framework applies: own the engines, not the passengers.
Closing: Being Right Isn’t the Point
The purpose of this site was never prediction — it was calibration.
If time keeps proving the logic right, that’s not foresight; it’s coherence.
The world doesn’t reward noise; it rewards alignment with reality.
And so far, reality has been kind to logic.
— William Moulod, Purpl.co (Annual Review 2025)
